Cognitive Biases and Their Impact - 16 (Hindsight Bias)

Hindsight Bias Hindsight bias was first identified and studied by psychologist Baruch Fischhoff in the 1970s. Fischhoff's pioneering work revealed how people consistently distorted their memories of what they believed before an event occurred to match what actually happened. This discovery was a significant contribution to the field of psychology and decision-making. Hindsight bias is a cognitive phenomenon where people believe that they had accurately predicted or expected the outcome beforehand after an event has occurred, even if they did not. This bias is sometimes referred to as the "knew-it-all-along" effect or "creeping determinism." It reflects a common tendency in human cognition to see events as being more predictable than they were once the outcomes are known. Some of the critical characteristics of hindsight bias are as follows- Altered Memory: People often misremember their earlier opinions or predictions to align with actual outcomes. The feeling...